Pass Beyond the Marker on Third Down

The offensive philosophy in the NFL has changed dramatically over the years. One of the most frustrating changes rears its ugly head on third down. Some offensive coordinators are putting the onus on the receiver to get a first down instead of relying on the arm of the quarterback.

Coordinators seem to have gotten more timid on this all important down. In the past on third down, receivers would get an earful if they did not run their route at, or past, the marker but now teams often throw short and hope the receiver can get enough yards after the catch to move the chains. Even with the ultra athletic players today that is a flawed philosophy.

By examining thousands of third down attempts over more than a decade of NFL games here is the proof of that accusation. Of the over 40,000 passes where air yards are equal to or greater than the yards to go on third down, 43% converted to first down. Of the over 25,000 passes that had air yards less than the yards to go, only 25% converted. Even with the risk of an interception or sack, the numbers show a massive difference in success rate. It also points to the importance of being aggressive and getting the ball past the first down marker.

Removing sacks, spikes, and interceptions, there have been more than 30,000 passes made past the marker on third down and 53% of those passes successfully converted to first down. On the more than 22,000 passes with air yards less than yards to go, only 26% converted. Another massive gap in the numbers.

If penalties are removed, the numbers stay nearly the same. 52% of the passes at or past the marker convert while only 26% short of the marker convert. That is a large chasm in success rate.

Finally, if we only examine plays that have a distance of five yards or less to get the first down, the picture is still clear on what offensive choice should be made. 58% of pass attempts at, or past, the first down marker convert the third down with a short distance to go. The shorter distance does help the less aggressive play callers but there is still a significant gap. With five or less yards to go, throwing short of the marker converts the third down 45% of the time. With the growing parity in the NFL, a small advantage can turn the tide.

The data is clear. Throwing short of the marker has a significantly smaller success rate. Converting the “money down” leads to touchdowns and that leads to wins. Playing it safe is a great way have an average team.

The third down philosophy of offensive coordinators should be aggressive and they should instill a “get past the marker” mentality in their receivers. Coaches need to rely on the most important position in sports, their quarterback. The “take what the defense gives you” strategy doesn’t work as well as being aggressive on third down and it could cost a team wins.