Tight End Groups and Third Down Performance

The tight end position has become a valuable asset in the NFL. Prior to the merger and for at least a decade after, tight ends were rarely used as a pass catching threat. They were blockers first and pass catchers second. There were a few who were dual threats but it wasn’t until the Denver Broncos converted Shannon Sharpe from wide receiver to tight end that NFL teams fundamentally changed how they used that position. Today, they are often times as valuable as a receiver in the the passing game. If they are elite, quarterbacks look to them to convert third downs. 

In that crucial moment, how successful are tight ends in converting the “money down” and how often do teams rely on that position in those situations? Also, do some teams pass to their tight ends more often than they should on third down? For the 2024 season, that analysis is complete. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are the #1 team in both passing to their tight ends and converting the third down. It makes sense because they have a future Hall of Fame player at that position. The rest of the top five in third down conversion rate are the Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, and San Francisco 49ers. 

Those in the bottom five are the Denver Broncos (last place), Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers, and New York Giants. Interestingly, there is a large contrast between the Browns and the rest of the bottom five in that the Browns did not realize that their tight end group was not capable of converting the third down. They have the third most attempts to the tight ends even though they were third worst in converting. That was very inefficient.

For comparison, the Broncos were dead last and they threw to their tight ends very few times. In fact, they attempted the fourth fewest passes to that group of all teams. In other words, the Broncos realized their group was inept and went elsewhere on the money down where the Browns did not make that realization.

Below is a scatterplot representing pass attempts and third down conversion percent by team, for reference. (Note: Vikings and Jaguars had the exact same numbers so JAX is also MIN in the scatterplot)

The analysis reviews only pass attempts on third down to players who predominantly play the tight end position in the 2024 regular season. Third down conversion percent is the number of times a pass attempt to that tight end group converts a third down divided by the number of times a pass attempt to that tight end group occurs on a third down.

Here is the bottom line. If your favorite team is in the lower right quadrant, that team needs to make some changes to the play calling. If your team is in the lower left quadrant, said team needs to upgrade the tight end room. Those in the upper left should consider a few more targets. The upper right area is displaying the teams who utilize the tight ends well.